A new foresight report developed in the Care4Skills project explores four possible futures for long-term care by 2040, highlighting how today’s choices in workforce development, technology, funding and community engagement could shape future care systems. 

The report presents four contrasting scenarios, meant to be used as tools for reflection and strategic planning.

Rebellious Care imagines a future driven by grassroots innovation and life-centred values. In this scenario, care professionals, families, and communities reject rigid institutional models and co-create flexible, personalised support systems. Technology supports, but never replaces, human relationships, while new roles such as Digital Ethics Stewards and Community Voice Facilitators help ensure inclusion, dignity, and participation. 

Shared Care presents a collaborative future where caregiving becomes a shared social responsibility. Communities, volunteers, families, and professionals work together in intergenerational networks, supported by digital coordination tools and strong local partnerships. Care is no longer viewed solely as a professional service, but as a civic skill rooted in solidarity, empathy, and sustainability. 

In contrast, Institutionalised Care reflects a continuation of traditional hierarchical systems, where regulation, standardisation, and established structures dominate care delivery. While stability and safety remain priorities, the scenario raises questions about flexibility, workforce motivation, and the ability to respond to increasingly complex individual needs. 

Finally, Technocratic Care offers a cautionary vision of a highly automated care system shaped by efficiency and algorithmic control. Artificial intelligence, robotics, and predictive systems dominate service delivery, at the risk of reducing human interaction, autonomy, and emotional connection. 

The scenarios underline that the future of care will depend on how societies balance technology, human dignity, workforce skills, and collective responsibility. The report also highlights that empathy, communication, collaboration, and problem-solving will remain essential competencies regardless of how care systems evolve. 

Developed through workshops and stakeholder engagement across ten European countries, the Care4Skills scenarios can provide valuable insight for policymakers, educators, care providers and communities seeking to build resilient and sustainable long-term care systems for the future. The full foresight report will be published by the summer 2026.